Socioeconomic Determinants of Illegal Drug Use in Northern Mindanao, Philippines: Evidence from Dynamic Negative Binomial Regression
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67167/vertex.669Keywords:
illegal drug use, socioeconomic factors, employment, dynamic negative binomial regression, Northern Mindanao, Region XAbstract
Illegal drug use remains a significant public health, social, and development concern in the Philippines, with implications for labor productivity, community well-being, and socioeconomic development. This study examined the socioeconomic determinants of illegal drug use in Northern Mindanao (Region X) using annual time-series data from 2006 to 2024. Specifically, it analyzed trends in employment rate, unemployment rate, underemployment rate, income level, poverty rate, literacy rate, and reported illegal drug users, and estimated their statistical association with illegal drug use incidence. A quantitative descriptive-correlational design was employed using secondary data obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority, Dangerous Drugs Board, Department of Health, and Philippine National Police. Trend analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, multicollinearity diagnostics, ARDL bounds testing, Poisson regression, Negative Binomial regression, and Dynamic Negative Binomial regression were conducted. Model selection was based on goodness-of-fit measures, overdispersion diagnostics, and count-data model assumptions.
Results revealed a statistically significant upward trend in reported illegal drug users despite improvements in several socioeconomic indicators. Income levels increased while poverty and underemployment rates generally declined. Diagnostic tests confirmed overdispersion and temporal persistence in illegal drug use, supporting the Dynamic Negative Binomial model as the preferred specification. Findings showed that the lagged number of illegal drug users positively influenced current drug-use incidence, while employment rate significantly reduced the expected number of illegal drug users. Poverty rate exhibited a weak negative association, whereas unemployment rate, underemployment rate, income level, and literacy rate were not statistically significant determinants. The study concludes that illegal drug use in Northern Mindanao is influenced by both labor market conditions and temporal persistence. Policies expanding stable employment opportunities, alongside prevention, treatment, rehabilitation, and community-based recovery programs, support sustainable reductions in illegal drug use.
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